Research Project
"The Political Governance of Economic
Transitions in Central and Eastern Europe and the Conditions of Institutional
Learning"
Brief Description
German Version
The central aim of the project is
to defeat the impossibility theorem of holistic reform. The success story
of most transition countries gives empirical proof that the dilemma of simultaneity
can be overcome. In order to identify the conditions under which holistic
reforms are possible, different modes of governing the economic transition
in Central and Eastern Europe are examined. A comparative analysis of thirteen
post-socialist countries illustrates the impact of political institutions
and specific constellations and choices of political actors on the outcome
of economic reforms and the long-term economic development.
From the perspective of governance
theory the relation between constraints, choices and time dependence is essential
and leads to the following contrasting conditions and hypotheses that will
be tested empirically:
(1) The imitation of reforms that have
been effectively implemented elsewhere will secure success. Alternatively:
Since the impact and legitimacy of imported recipes is questionable, it
turns out to be more efficient to design innovative and context-related measures.
(2) The executive powers have to be
free of political, institutional and societal restrictions that might hamper
a quick and complete implementation of reforms as well as impede on the
required continuity of action. Alternatively: Reforms deriving from compromise
on negotiated policies will gain more acceptance. Therefore, the existence
of veto-players forces the government to be more responsive to social interests.
(3) At the beginning of transition,
when structures are not yet institutionalised, the government has to make
use of the so-called window of opportunity. Alternatively: The legacies of
the past cannot be wiped out, so they have to be included into reform concepts
and reforms should be modest and easily adjustable.
The main methods used are those of
quantitative analysis, whereas the structure of the political system (governmental
system and the mode of interest representation), political decisions and
the time frame are independent variables. Aggregated macro-economic data
(GDP, degree of privatisation, employment etc.) form the dependent variables.
Additionally, several qualitative case studies will complete the empirical
research. As an overall aim of research, systematic knowledge is sought about
the conditions for success and failure in the beginning of transition as
well as the decisions made in order to readjust the policies initially
chosen.